By Kelechi Deca
In the last few years, a major challenge facing oil producing countries across Africa, especially the first generation countries on the list such as Nigeria, Gabon, Algeria, Republic of Congo and Libya is the reduction of output from maturing oil fields due to depleting reserves. This situation has been responsible for some of these countries’ inability to meet their OPEC quotas thus negatively affecting their economies. This is why it was welcome news to industry watchers that the deployment of Artificial intelligence (AI) in prospecting has led to positive outcomes.
Africa’s mature oilfields are experiencing a renaissance and artificial intelligence (AI) is at the heart of this transformation
This will most definitely take the front burner at the upcoming African Energy Week (AEW) 2025 themed: Invest in African Energies – taking place September 29 to October 3 in Cape Town. During the event, energy leaders will converge to explore the role of digital transformation in advancing enhanced oil recovery (EOR) across Africa.
This cannot be overemphasized enough especially against the backdrop of the era we live in which is defined by innovation and sustainability, thus enhanced oil recovery (EOR) technologies – powered by AI – are breathing new life into declining reservoirs. The oil industry across Africa has embraced artificial intelligence as not just a tool but as a catalyst for maximizing output, extending the field life of the oil fields, and also improving operational efficiency. These involve a chain of activities from predictive analytics to machine learning algorithms all contributing towards the transformation of the petroleum sector.
According to the African Energy Week (AEW), in 2025, the global market for AI in the oil and gas industry is estimated at $3.54 billion, and is set to rise to $6.4 billion by 2030. This is largely due to a rise in AI adoption by major operators. Examples include Baker Hughes and Repsol pooling resources to bring AI processes and workflows into oil and gas projects. Repsol has several developments underway in Libya, Algeria and Morocco and strives to bolster production across these markets. SLB inaugurated its Africa Performance Center in Luanda in 2025, which will support oil operations by offering access to digital solutions such as AI. SLB has supported several billion-dollar oil projects in Angola, with investments in almost every other region in Africa.
The power of AI in enhanced oil recovery comes down to predictive modeling. Before now, traditional enhanced oil recovery relied heavily on limited data, with simplified reservoir models often impacting results. However, through AI, companies are able to analyze large datasets to deliver more accurate predictions of oil recovery. Another key benefit of AI in enhanced oil recovery is reservoir management. By analyzing geological and production data, companies can better-understand reservoir features, therefore supporting recovery techniques. Machine-learning also offers significant opportunities for enhanced oil recovery, specifically through its ability to recognize patterns, handle datasets and make accurate predictions. The application of machine-learning also enables reservoir performance forecasting, supporting decision-making by allowing companies to predict future production.
As the African continent fully embraces digital transformation, policy reform has become a vital enabler of AI adoption across the oil industry. By integrating digital solutions and targets into regulatory frameworks, countries can support investments in AI and machine learning while accelerating research and development. Various countries are streamlining policy to support enhanced oil recovery at legacy assets. Angola, for example, implemented its Incremental Production Initiative in 2024 which offers tax incentives to encourage reinvestments in mature oilfields.
Energy major ExxonMobil made the first discovery – the Likembe-01 well – as part of the initiative in 2024, demonstrating the role policy plays in unlocking incremental resources. The African Union Commission also declared AI as a strategic priority for the continent in May 2025, citing the role machine-learning plays in transforming the continent’s development trajectory. The declaration is expected to create in-roads for technology companies, introducing new opportunities for oil operators to maximize recovery and efficiency.
This year’s Africa Energy Week promises to host dedicated sessions on digital transformation, enhanced oil recovery and AI in exploration. A series of panel discussions and technical workshops will explore the new chapter of AI-driven oil production in Africa. AEW: Invest in African Energies 2025 will be the space where policy, capital and technology converge to define this next chapter.
The Executive Chairman of African Energy Chambers NJ Ayuk, while highlighting the importance of this transformative tool was quoted recently as saying that “Africa’s oil and gas assets hold immense value and AI is the key to unlocking resources efficiently and sustainably. In addition to supporting exploration efforts, AI will breathe new life into Africa’s ageing oilfields, extending field life, maximizing value and driving smarter, low-carbon production.”
With this development, countries like Nigeria that has been struggling to keep up with its OPEC quota which has seriously affected its economy due to ageing oil fields and lack of new developments will heave a sigh of relief with the deployment of AI in the industry. It would equally be a great leap of faith if similar deployment could be made tackling the high levels of opacity in the sector to enhance accountability and transparency in the system.
Kelechi Deca, a journalist and public affairs analyst writes from Lagos
