Nigeria imported about 15.01 billion litres of petrol between August 2024 and the first 10 days of October 2025 representing roughly 69 percent of the total national fuel supply during that period, according to new data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).
This finding comes despite the start of petrol production at the Dangote Refinery in September 2024, a development many Nigerians had expected would drastically cut fuel importation.
The NMDPRA report, titled “Import vs Domestic Supply Performance (PMS Daily Average Supply – August 2024 to October 2025)”, showed that Nigeria supplied a total of 21.68 billion litres of petrol during the 15-month period. Of this, 6.67 billion litres (31 percent) came from domestic refineries primarily Dangote’s 650,000 barrels-per-day plant while the rest was imported.
Import Dependence Gradually Declining
In August 2024, when Dangote had not yet commenced local supply, imported petrol averaged 44.6 million litres per day, rising to a peak of 54.3 million litres per day in September 2024. But once the refinery began production, import levels began to fall steadily dropping to 24.15 million litres per day in January 2025, 19.26 million litres by September, and 15.11 million litres in early October 2025.
By contrast, domestic production climbed from just 6.43 million litres per day in September 2024 to 22.66 million litres in January 2025, before stabilising around 20 million litres in the months that followed. By October 2025, the Dangote Refinery was producing an average of 18.93 million litres daily, overtaking imports for the first time.
Consumption and Supply Trends
The report also showed that total daily petrol supply peaked at 60.73 million litres in September 2024 before dropping to 34.04 million litres in October 2025 a sign of reduced national fuel consumption. Analysts link this decline to the removal of petrol subsidies and rising pump prices since the Federal Government fully deregulated the sector in September 2024.
During the review period, cumulative petrol imports hit 15 billion litres, while domestic output reached 6.67 billion litres, confirming that local refining, though improving, still trails far behind imports.
Dangote vs Importers: A Competitive Tug-of-War
The report reflects growing competition between the Dangote Refinery and petrol importers. While marketers accuse Dangote of driving down prices to gain market dominance, the refinery maintains it has more than enough fuel for both local and foreign markets.
“We have over 310 million litres of PMS in storage,” said Devakumar Edwin, Vice President of the Dangote Group. “Any number of tankers you bring, we’ll load. The refinery produces enough for Nigeria and exports.”
The refinery has also become a notable exporter, having supplied fuel cargoes to the Middle East Gulf and even sold two shipments of aviation fuel to Saudi Aramco earlier in 2025. Dangote himself claimed that Nigeria has become a net exporter of refined products, citing the export of nearly one million tonnes of petrol between June and July 2025.
Toward Energy Independence
NMDPRA Chief Executive Farouk Ahmed acknowledged the refinery’s impact, noting that it now supplies an average of 20 million litres of petrol daily to the Nigerian market.
“Without a shadow of a doubt, the operation of the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Refinery has changed the supply dynamics,” Ahmed said.
While Nigeria remains dependent on imports for most of its petrol, the steady growth in local refining marks a significant step toward energy independence. Experts say the next few years will determine whether Nigeria can finally end decades of reliance on imported fuel a long-standing paradox for one of the world’s largest crude oil producers.
