Nigeria’s food inflation rate fell sharply to 8.89 per cent year-on-year in January 2026, marking the lowest level in more than 14 years, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The figure represents the first single-digit food inflation reading in 128 months and the lowest since August 2011, when it stood at 8.66 per cent. Food inflation had remained in double digits since June 2015, when it rose to 10.04 per cent.
Data from the bureau showed a steep decline from 29.63 per cent in January 2025 to 8.89 per cent in January 2026 — a drop of 20.73 percentage points within a year. On a month-on-month basis, food inflation contracted by 6.02 per cent in January, compared to a 0.36 per cent decline recorded in December 2025.
The NBS attributed the slowdown to reductions in the average prices of staples including water yams, eggs, green peas, groundnut oil, soya beans, palm oil, maize grains, guinea corn, beans, beef, melon, and cassava tubers.
On a 12-month average basis, food inflation stood at 20.29 per cent in January 2026, significantly lower than the 38.47 per cent recorded in January 2025. The moderation follows a prolonged inflation surge between 2022 and 2024, when food inflation peaked at 40.87 per cent in June 2024 before easing gradually through 2025.
Headline Inflation Also Eases
Headline inflation edged down marginally to 15.10 per cent in January 2026 from 15.15 per cent in December 2025, defying earlier projections that it could rise to 19 per cent.
The CPI declined to 127.4 in January from 131.2 in December, reflecting a 3.8-point decrease. On a year-on-year basis, the headline rate was 12.51 percentage points lower than the 27.61 per cent recorded in January 2025 — the lowest level in over five years.
Month-on-month, headline inflation recorded a negative 2.88 per cent, indicating a general decline in average prices during the month.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy prices, stood at 17.72 per cent year-on-year in January 2026, compared to 25.27 per cent in January 2025. On a monthly basis, it declined by 1.69 per cent.
State-by-State Variations
State-level data showed significant disparities. Benue recorded the highest year-on-year all-items inflation rate at 22.48 per cent, followed by Kogi (20.98 per cent) and the Federal Capital Territory (19.25 per cent). Ebonyi (8.72 per cent), Katsina (8.94 per cent), and Imo (10.61 per cent) posted the lowest headline rates.
For food inflation, Kogi led with 19.84 per cent, followed by Benue (18.38 per cent) and Adamawa (17.29 per cent), while Ebonyi, Abia, and Imo recorded the slowest increases.
Organised Private Sector Urges Caution
Despite the positive data, members of the Organised Private Sector urged caution against celebrating too early, arguing that prices remain high in absolute terms.
The National Vice President of the National Association of Small-Scale Industrialists, Kuti-George, attributed the moderation to increased agricultural output, particularly in rice and cassava production, as well as relative exchange rate stability.
He noted that the official exchange rate has stabilised around N1,350 to the dollar, compared to earlier peaks, contributing to reduced cost pressures.
However, the Director-General of the National Association of Small and Medium Enterprises, Eke Ubiji, argued that the lower inflation rate had yet to translate into meaningful relief for consumers.
“Cost of living is very, very high. The evidence on the ground does not justify what is being put forward,” he said, citing continued high prices for essentials such as cooking gas and rice.
While acknowledging that the pace of price increases may have slowed, Ubiji warned the government against premature celebration, stressing that both food and non-food items remain expensive.
The January figures suggest broad-based easing in price pressures, largely driven by declining food costs. However, elevated 12-month averages indicate that the effects of previous inflation spikes continue to weigh on households and businesses.
