Lagos, Nigeria – Analysts at CardinalStone have projected that Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will grow to 4.22 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025, up from 3.98 per cent in Q3, signaling optimism for the country’s economic performance as the year draws to a close.
The forecast, disclosed in CardinalStone’s Macro Research note on Tuesday, follows the latest GDP data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), which recorded a 3.98 per cent growth in Q3 2025 – slightly above the 3.86 per cent in the same quarter of 2024 but lower than the 4.23 per cent posted in Q2 2025. Analysts attributed the Q3 dip to softer oil output amid maintenance activities and delays at key oil mining leases.
CardinalStone highlighted that a rebound in Q4 is expected due to improving macroeconomic conditions. “The recently released PMI numbers for November 2025 showed a strong and broad-based expansion in aggregate economic activities. We perceive that this robust output is likely to translate into strong GDP numbers for Q4 2025,” the report noted. The firm projected a full-year 2025 growth of 3.92 per cent.
In the non-oil sector, growth was supported by currency appreciation, moderating inflation, and increased domestic consumption. Sectors such as trade and financial services benefited from higher bank fees, commissions, and elevated OMO rates averaging 28.0 per cent in Q3. Meanwhile, agriculture output reached its highest level in 14 quarters, boosted by the harvest season. However, manufacturing remained constrained by high borrowing costs, and ICT growth slowed due to continued SIM card deactivations linked to the NIN.
Other analysts echoed the positive outlook. Muyiwa Oni, Head of Equity Research West Africa at Stanbic IBTC Bank, projected overall 2025 GDP growth of around 4 per cent, noting that government infrastructure initiatives, investments in oil and gas, and the Dangote Refinery’s forward-linkage effects would support economic expansion. He added that expected lower interest rates, inflation moderation, and exchange rate stabilisation would further boost private consumption and investment in 2026.
Investment house Comercio Partners described the economy as operating at “two speeds,” with non-oil sectors stabilising and the oil sector facing operational bottlenecks. Meristem Securities also forecast Q4 growth of 4.08 per cent YoY, projecting full-year 2025 GDP at 3.88 per cent.
The consensus among analysts suggests that Nigeria’s economy is poised for a strong finish in 2025, underpinned by resilient non-oil sectors and improving macroeconomic indicators, offering cautious optimism for businesses and investors.
