June 17, 2025 Global oil prices saw significant fluctuations this week as escalating tensions in the Middle East coincided with renewed trade hostilities between major economies, raising fresh concerns about energy supply security and demand outlook.
Brent crude, the international benchmark, swung between $81 and $87 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) moved within a $5 range, closing Tuesday at $82.36 per barrel. Traders and analysts attribute the volatility to a complex web of geopolitical and economic factors gripping the global market.
At the heart of the latest disruption are renewed hostilities near key shipping lanes in the Persian Gulf, following a string of drone attacks on oil infrastructure in the region. Though no major supply outages have been confirmed, the threat of escalation has put energy markets on high alert.
“Even the possibility of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz—through which a fifth of the world’s oil passes—sends a strong signal to markets,” said Alicia Monroe, an energy analyst at Barclays. “It’s not about actual supply loss yet; it’s about perceived risk.”
Meanwhile, trade tensions between the United States and China resurfaced, with both sides announcing fresh tariffs on key imports. Analysts warn that this could dampen global oil demand growth, particularly if manufacturing and logistics slow down in response to higher costs.
“Global oil demand is being squeezed from two sides—geopolitical threats to supply and trade-driven threats to consumption,” said Tomohiro Akiyama, chief economist at Nomura Securities.
In response to the uncertainty, OPEC+ ministers are reportedly considering an emergency meeting to discuss potential production adjustments. While some member nations advocate tightening supply to stabilize prices, others are wary of triggering further market anxiety.
Market watchers say the next few weeks will be crucial. With peak summer travel season approaching and hurricane threats looming in the Atlantic, the oil market could remain highly reactive to both economic data and geopolitical developments.
